Reds beat the Braves last night to move to 8-5 and only half a game back from Houston in the division and tied for the 6th best record in baseball. But the Reds’ run differential is only +2 (59 runs scored, 57 runs allowed), which is 13th-best in baseball. Houston’s run differential is +37 and Chicago is +18. The Reds current numbers would project to 738 runs scored and 713 runs allowed over the course of a full season (differential of +25). Since 11 of the Reds’ 13 games so far have been against projected contenders (Cubs, Phillies, and Braves), we could reasonably expect the Reds’ differential to improve over the course of the season. Similar differentials from last season were:

Team/Differential/2003 Record
Minnesota/+43/90-72
Kansas City/-31/83-79
Anaheim/-7/77-85
Montreal/-5/83-79
LA/+18/85-77
Arizona/+32/84-78

The only team in that group with a losing record was Anaheim, playing in the insanely difficult AL West.

The Reds are 7-1 when they get a quality start (at least 6 innings pitched and no more than 3 runs allowed) and 1-4 when they don’t.